Predicting All 32 NFL Starting Quarterbacks for 2026: ESPN’s (Seth Walder) Team-by-Team Roundup

Predicting All 32 NFL Starting Quarterbacks for 2026: ESPN’s (Seth Walder) Team-by-Team Roundup

Quarterback movement is the NFL’s annual accelerant—speeding up change across the league—and the 2026 offseason is set up to be especially volatile. With only one “sure thing” at the top of the draft board and multiple teams either stuck in the middle or staring at a reset, the league is headed toward a familiar outcome: a handful of franchises will convince themselves a trade, a bridge veteran, or a small-sample breakout is the best available answer.

Below is my analysis of ESPN’s (Seth Walder) projected Week 1 starters for the 2026 season. Read Walder’s full projections here: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47977560/32-nfl-starting-quarterbacks-predictions-2026-season

Arizona Cardinals: Jacoby Brissett

Walder’s projection points to a short-term pivot away from Kyler Murray. Brissett is the classic “keep the ship upright” option—competent, relatively inexpensive, and unlikely to elevate a roster by himself. The logic is financial as much as football: if Arizona can move Murray, it can reduce the immediate quarterback spend and reset the room around a cheaper veteran. Walder also floated Alabama’s Ty Simpson as a potential draft target, which fits the idea of Brissett as a bridge who can start early and yield later.

Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr.

The key variable is health. Penix’s torn ACL in November makes his Week 1 status uncertain, and even if he’s cleared, the bigger question is what version of Penix shows up. Walder’s framing—high highs and low lows—captures the risk: Penix flashed top-end play in chunks, but inconsistency is a tough trait to build around if the roster is trying to win now. Still, sticking with him would be a bet on development rather than another expensive veteran detour.

Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson

This is the “nothing to see here” entry, but it still matters because it’s a reminder of how quickly the league can overreact to a down year. Jackson’s 2025 wasn’t his standard, and he missed time, but the baseline remains elite. A new offensive coordinator (Declan Doyle) adds some uncertainty, yet Baltimore’s entire identity is built around Jackson’s unique stress on defenses. If he’s healthy, the Ravens’ ceiling remains as high as anyone’s.

Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen

Allen is the cleanest projection on the board. Even in a “down” year, he’s still a top-tier quarterback who can drag an offense through imperfect conditions. Walder’s note about the receiving group is important: Buffalo’s margin for error shrinks if the supporting cast doesn’t improve, but Allen’s presence keeps the Bills in the weekly contender tier regardless of opponent.

Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young

This is a cautious endorsement. Young got Carolina to the playoffs and showed stretches of real growth, but the efficiency profile still reads like a quarterback who hasn’t fully arrived. The implication is that 2026 is another evaluation year—good enough to start, not good enough to extend without hesitation. For the Panthers, the goal is to see if the improved moments can become the norm rather than the exception.

Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams

Williams’ second-year leap is the story here, even with the accuracy concerns still lingering in the data. The Bears’ takeaway is simple: they can win with him, and the “wow” throws are real. The next step is turning the spectacular into the routine—cleaner down-to-down accuracy, fewer misses, and more consistent control of games. But as a Week 1 starter projection, this is as locked-in as it gets.

Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow

Health is the entire conversation. A toe injury derailed 2025, and Cincinnati’s recent frustration is tied to the fact that the window is open but the results haven’t matched. If Burrow is healthy, the Bengals’ offense is still one of the league’s most dangerous structures. The pressure shifts to the defense and overall roster balance—because Burrow’s presence alone should be enough to keep them in the playoff hunt.

Cleveland Browns: Kyler Murray

This is one of Walder’s more aggressive projections, and it’s rooted in Cleveland’s reality: the roster needs a quarterback solution that isn’t a long-term rebuild, and the draft doesn’t offer many clean answers beyond top prospect Fernando Mendoza. Murray is expensive, but not outlandishly so for a starting QB, and the contract structure gives Cleveland a multi-year runway if it works. The risk is obvious—Murray’s 2025 dip plus Cleveland’s offensive holes—but the upside is also obvious: if Murray rebounds, the Browns finally have a quarterback with real playmaking range.

Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott

Prescott’s 2025 efficiency suggests he’s still playing at a high level even if the team results didn’t follow. The key detail is game script: Dallas wasn’t playing with the lead often, which can distort how an offense looks. If the defense rebounds even to average, Prescott’s steady production should be enough to put the Cowboys back in the postseason mix.

Denver Broncos: Bo Nix

Nix’s late-season surge is the reason this projection feels optimistic. The season-long numbers were solid, but the post-Week 13 stretch looked like a quarterback trending toward “win because of him,” not just “win with him.” The injury in the playoffs is a reminder of how fragile momentum can be, but Denver’s bet is that the second-half version is closer to the truth.

Detroit Lions: Jared Goff

This is a context-driven projection. Goff’s 2025 wasn’t peak Lions offense, but Detroit’s pass protection issues help explain the dip. If the Lions stabilize up front, Goff is still a functional distributor in a system that can generate answers. The path back to an elite offense is less about replacing Goff and more about restoring the environment that made everything hum.

Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love

Love’s profile is trending in the right direction: fewer turnovers, fewer sacks, and a style that keeps the offense on schedule. That’s often the difference between “talented” and “contender quarterback.” If Green Bay continues to build around that efficiency, Love gives them a stable foundation in a conference where stability is rare.

Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud

The last image—four interceptions in a playoff loss—can’t erase the broader point: Stroud was mostly solid behind poor pass protection. Houston’s priority is obvious: protect him better and keep the offense from living on the edge. Stroud is the starter, and 2026 becomes a test of whether the Texans can build a structure that lets him play cleaner football in the biggest moments.

Indianapolis Colts: Gardner Minshew

This is a “Week 1 only” projection driven by Daniel Jones’ Achilles injury timeline. The Colts want Jones back, but they need a starter to open the season, and Minshew’s history with Shane Steichen makes him a logical plug-in. The bigger takeaway is that Indianapolis is trying to thread the needle: compete now, bridge early, and still keep the door open for Jones later in the year.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence

The second-half surge under Liam Coen is the reason for optimism. If the improvement is real—and not just split-driven noise—Jacksonville finally has the version of Lawrence it expected when it drafted him. The 2026 question becomes whether the Jaguars can sustain that level across a full season and build a roster that matches the quarterback’s trajectory.

Kansas City Chiefs: Marcus Mariota

This projection is less about Mariota and more about Patrick Mahomes’ knee recovery. Walder treated Mahomes’ Week 1 status as a true question mark, and if Kansas City chooses caution, Mariota is the “steady hands” option: experienced, capable of running an offense, and unlikely to implode. The Chiefs’ roster is built to survive a short-term bridge, but the season’s ceiling still depends on Mahomes’ timeline.

Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza

This is the draft-driven projection: the Raiders need a quarterback, Mendoza is the top prospect, and the gap to the rest of the class is large. If Vegas lands him, the immediate question is whether he’s ready to start right away or whether the team should insulate him with a veteran. Walder’s projection goes straight to Week 1 starter, which implies confidence that he’s the best option from day one.

Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert

Herbert’s projection is about unlocking the ceiling. With Mike McDaniel coordinating the offense, the Chargers are aiming for a more quarterback-friendly structure that turns Herbert’s talent into consistent production. The “held in higher regard than production” critique is fair, but 2026 is set up as a prove-it year in terms of results matching reputation.

Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford

Stafford returning keeps the Rams in the “dangerous if healthy” category. If he’s still playing at an MVP level, the Rams can contend. The contract will likely be revisited, but the football part is straightforward: Stafford is the engine, and the roster is built around maximizing the remaining window.

Miami Dolphins: Malik Willis

This is one of the spiciest projections because it’s built on a tiny sample—and on organizational familiarity. Walder connected Willis to Miami’s new leadership group with Packers ties, and the efficiency in limited action is hard to ignore. The risk is obvious: a few starts in a great system doesn’t guarantee anything. But Miami’s cap situation and Tua Tagovailoa’s trajectory make a swing like this understandable. If the Dolphins do it, they’re betting upside is worth the volatility.

Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins

This is the “return to the known” prediction. Minnesota’s defense helped carry a 14-win season with middling quarterback play, and J.J. McCarthy didn’t look ready. Cousins—assuming he’s released—offers competence and familiarity with Kevin O’Connell’s environment. The downside is age and recent injury history, but the upside is immediate baseline performance.

New England Patriots: Drake Maye

Maye is the franchise. Even with a rough Super Bowl showing, the broader season was elite, and the Patriots’ advantage is the rookie-contract window. New England can be aggressive building the roster because the quarterback cost is controlled, and Walder’s projection reflects that the team believes it has a true top-end starter.

New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough

Shough’s projection is a bet on “good enough plus growth.” The numbers weren’t overwhelming, but they were stable across a meaningful stretch of starts, and that’s often enough for a team to commit to another year. The Saints’ challenge is raising the ceiling—either through Shough’s development or by improving the environment around him.

New York Giants: Jaxson Dart

Dart’s rookie year provided real optimism, especially given injuries around him. The key is whether Year 2 brings a leap and whether the offense can stay intact. If Malik Nabers and the line are healthier, the Giants could move from “promising” to “dangerous,” but it’s still a projection built on development.

New York Jets: Spencer Rattler

This is the hardest kind of projection: a team with multiple plausible paths. Rattler’s accuracy indicators and steadiness in New Orleans make him an intriguing trade target, and the cost would likely be manageable. For the Jets, this would be a bet that a young quarterback with some positive indicators is a better gamble than an aging veteran or a desperate draft reach.

Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts

Hurts is still the starter, but the tone is evaluative. A poor 2025 season drops him into a “prove it again” category, and the Eagles’ organizational history suggests they won’t hesitate to pivot if performance doesn’t rebound. 2026 becomes a defining year: either Hurts reasserts himself as a top-tier option, or the conversation changes quickly.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Rodgers

This projection is about Pittsburgh’s appetite—or lack thereof—for a full reset. Rodgers’ efficiency profile suggests a quarterback managing risk with shorter throws, and at 42, the upside is limited. But if the Steelers believe their defense can carry and they want competence rather than chaos, Rodgers is a plausible short-term answer, especially with Mike McCarthy’s public openness to a reunion.

San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy

When Purdy played, the offense looked elite. The issue is availability. If he stays healthy, San Francisco’s ceiling is championship-level; if not, the season becomes a weekly scramble. Walder’s projection assumes health enough to start Week 1 and enough continuity for the 49ers to remain in the contender tier.

Seattle Seahawks: Sam Darnold

Winning a Super Bowl doesn’t erase the volatility in Darnold’s season arc. The first half was excellent, the second half was inefficient, and the playoffs were somewhere in between. Still, Seattle’s results make it hard to justify a change. The question for 2026 is whether the Seahawks can stabilize the down-to-down efficiency so the floor rises closer to the ceiling.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield

Mayfield’s projection is about value and adequacy. He’s good enough to win the division with the right support, and his contract number makes continuity sensible. Tampa Bay isn’t chasing perfection here—it’s chasing a stable offense that can win the games it should and be competitive in January.

Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward

Ward’s rookie year was rough by the numbers, but the context matters: coaching change, weak run game, and limited weapons. The projection is essentially a commitment to the development timeline. Tennessee is betting that with better structure and a more stable environment, Ward’s flashes become production.

Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels

This is a bounce-back projection. Injuries limited Daniels, and the efficiency drop is concerning, but the organization isn’t moving off a recent high-end investment after one derailed season. The 2026 question is whether 2025 was the outlier due to health and instability—or whether defenses adjusted and exposed limitations.

Overall, Walder’s board reads like a league in transition: bridges, bounce-backs, and bold rookie bets, with health and protection likely deciding as much as raw talent.